SINGAPORE — Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are set to end 2023 on a challenging note, with OCBC’s Chief Economist, Selena Ling, forecasti
SINGAPORE — Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are set to end 2023 on a challenging note, with OCBC’s Chief Economist, Selena Ling, forecasting the worst annual performance since 2001. Ling projects a contraction of -12.5%, aligning with the lower range of Enterprise Singapore’s forecast of -12.5% to -12.0%, The Edge Singapore reports.
In November, Singapore saw a slight 1% growth in NODX, breaking a 13-month contraction streak, but concerns about sustained recovery remain. UOB economists Alvin Liew and Jester Koh anticipate a slightly higher contraction for 2023 at -12.6%, below Enterprise Singapore’s projections. Oxford Economics’ Alex Holmes is cautious, suggesting the November uptick may not indicate a lasting improvement amid slowing global growth and the impact of tighter financial policies worldwide.
Key exports, especially electronics, saw a 12.7% drop in November, with significant declines in integrated circuits and personal computers. Non-electronics exports, however, increased by 5.2%, driven by pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods. Exports to Taiwan, the EU, and Indonesia saw steep drops, while trade with the US, China, Thailand, and Hong Kong improved.
Looking to 2024, Ling forecasts a moderate NODX recovery between 4% to 6%, hinging on a shift to a more accommodating global monetary policy and stable geopolitical conditions. UOB’s Liew and Koh are more optimistic, projecting 6% growth for 2024, driven by base effects and a possible electronics recovery, though they caution that global economic pressures may persist. Holmes remains skeptical, pointing to global headwinds that could limit NODX’s potential boost to Singapore’s GDP in 2024.
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